Arguably, the latest edition of the US election provided some of the biggest drama in recent decades, especially the build-up, with President (at the time), Joe Biden pulling out of the race for health reasons earlier in the year and Vice President Kamala Harris taking charge and also becoming the democratic candidate to face Republican Donald Trump, who was aiming to get elected for a second term.
As a result, the election also drew a considerable amount of betting interest across the country with favourable odds being offered for each candidate. Despite this, throughout, it was Trump who largely remained the narrow favourite, perhaps his experience being a factor.
From @decunningham2: we have preliminary results with all precincts in from North Carolina. Here's how every major race went.
In the Presidential race, Donald Trump won by a 3.4% margin. This is an improvement over 2020, but a slight trend left in the national popular vote. pic.twitter.com/FM6SkmhD92
— Elections Daily (@Elections_Daily) November 6, 2024
There was no doubt that the whole thing garnered a lot of interest throughout even worldwide, with many countries watching with intrigue, a lot of them invested in how the result would affect them. However, there was also substantial betting interest as well.
What Did The Betting Markets Look Like?
Especially as the weeks and days to election day drew nearer, there were significantly more bets being placed, while there were also some interesting voting patterns.
In major battleground states, or ‘swing states’, where a lot of previous elections have been traditionally won and lost, there was a significant volume of bets placed. Pennsylvania, especially, which proved to be crucial in the end, saw $300 million worth of bets placed, while the wagering figures for Arizona hit $250 million. Wisconsin hit $180 million and Georgia was $170 million.
While a significant amount was wagered on the US election when it came to the day, there was some interesting time periods. Between 10am and noon, we saw $80 million worth of bets placed, with this being the peak period because of morning breaks and between 5pm and 7pm, this saw $60 million worth of wagers, with people finishing work.
In terms of betting markets, early estimates reveal that the total amount of bets wagered on Trump came to $800 million, with rural areas and typically conservative states being responsible for this. Meanwhile, it is thought that roughly $750 million was wagered on Harris, attracting high turnouts in urban areas. However, there was also $50 million worth of bets on minority candidates, particularly in states such as Oregon and Colorado, which have historically been responsible for a significant third-party following.
From a gender perspective, early estimates reveal that when it came to female voters, $150 million was wagered, with these typically attracted to more progressive or Democratic candidates, while males bet $130 million on Republicans, reflecting their preference for improved economic policies.
In terms of ages, the betting numbers for this made for interesting reading. Ages 18-29 are understood to have voted more progressively, with most of their money ($50 million) being placed on Democrat or third parties, as shown by early voting data in college towns.
Meanwhile, ages 30-45 was a key swing demographic and they wagered approximately $70 million, generally reflecting the uncertainty. The 45-60 age group, typically showed a strong Republican leaning, with $90 million wagered, while 60+ highlighted mainly Republican support in this age group, with $120 million of bets wagered.